May 18, 2023

Environmental, Natural Resources, & Energy Law Blog

Rising Sea Levels and California Coastal Management: Is Managed Retreat a Viable Option for Saving Coastal Communities? - Ryan Lewis

 

  

 I.Introduction.. 2

II.Rising Sea Levels. 3

III.California Coastal Management. 4

A.Beach Nourishment, Armoring, and Managed Retreat. 5

B.Controversy Surrounding Managed Retreat. 8

IV.Recommendations for A Successful Managed Retreat Plan.. 10

V.Conclusion.. 11

 

Rising Sea Levels and California Coastal Management: Is Managed Retreat a Viable Option for Saving Coastal Communities?

 

Ryan E. Lewis, LLM[1]

 

 

               I.          Introduction

 

Approximately 26.3 million Californians live on or near the coastal portions of the state’s 1100 miles of shoreline.[2] Currently, 40% of California’s beaches are experiencing long-term (~120 years) erosion of -.2m/year, while 66% are experiencing short-term (~25 years) erosion of -0.3m/year.[3] As climate change causes increased sea-levels, increased coastal erosion is expected.[4] As sea levels and erosion increase, coastal homes and communities are at risk. By the end of the century, 13 million US coastal residents will likely face displacement.[5] California, with its vast coastline and dense population, is headed toward an unchartered and unprecedented crisis caused by climate change. Local and state governments appear reluctant to plan for this future.[6] In fact, some government programs encourage rebuilding in flood-prone areas.[7] To avoid loss of life, property damage, and displaced communities, California should develop large-scale plans that actively pursue managed retreat.

 

             II.          Rising Sea Levels

 

Sea levels off California’s coast are rising at an accelerated rate. Since 1950, the sea level around San Francisco, California, has risen by 6 inches. But in the last ten years, the sea is now rising by about 1 inch every 10 years.[8] Some scientists project sea levels will rise at least another six inches by 2030 and approximately seven or ten feet by 2100.[9] Melting ice sheets are historically hard to predict because the physics governing ice sheet behavior is complex, but recent evidence confirms the Earth’s ice sheets are melting at an accelerated rate. [10] “Seven of the worst melting years have occurred in the past decade.”[11] If the Thwaites Glacier (nicknamed the Doomsday Glacier) in the Antarctic collapses, the homes of at least 20 million people in the US will be below high tide.[12]

 

In the near future, Californians will face monumental personal and financial hardships due to rising sea levels. By 2050, $8-$10 billion of existing property in California is likely to be underwater.[13] If the Thwaites Glacier collapses, 50 percent of homes in Sacramento, California could be lost as ocean water advances inland through the river deltas.[14] Damage from sea-level rise could exceed destruction caused by California’s earthquakes and wildfires.[15] California, a state already struggling to meet the housing needs of its population, will need additional housing for displaced families. The state will also need to rebuild community infrastructure, such as schools, hospitals, and airports destroyed by the rising sea.[16] While sea-level rise will inevitably cause destruction, a plan for managed retreat from coastal areas can limit the devastation.

 

     III.     California Coastal Management

 

 

Often states, and not the federal government, take the lead on managing and protecting coastal resources.[17] This allows the states flexibility in addressing specific needs. The Coastal Zone Management Act (CZMA) of 1972 creates a federal and state partnership to manage coastal resources.[18] The CZMA encourages states to develop coastal management programs and implement the federal consistency procedures of the CZMA.[19] In California, the coastal management program is carried out through a partnership between state and local governments. The California Coastal Commission protects beaches and coastal access by overseeing and approving local coastal programs (LCPs).[20] The LCPs are prepared by the 15 counties and 61 cities located in the coastal zone. The local coastal programs provide for the development and protection of coastal resources in the 76 coastal cities and counties. Thus, the federal, state, and local governments all have a hand in managing California’s coastline. But it is the state and local governments which are in the best position to prevent future destruction caused by rising sea levels. 

 

                 A.     Beach Nourishment, Armoring, and Managed Retreat

 

As sea levels rise and coasts erode,[21] there are three main ways in which California can manage erosion: (1) it can add more sand to the shores (beach nourishment); (2) increase coastal armoring; (3) or create a plan for managed retreat.[22] To date, California coastal management plans largely focus on the first two options. Beach nourishment and coastal armoring have been used along the entire California Coast.[23] As discussed below, these measures are merely a stopgap and often have a negative impact on the coast.

 

“Beach Nourishment” is expensive, ineffective, and damages delicate ecosystems.[24] The addition of sand can kill animals living on the beach by destroying or burying their habitat. [25]The process also creates a major construction zone and disturbs wildlife and ecosystems. [26] Then, as the ocean starts eroding the new sand, the water becomes muddy, resulting in diminished water quality and smothering marine life.[27] The price tag for beach nourishment is high and it is not a sustainable solution.[28] Replacement sand is often washed away, sometimes after a single storm and can cause serious environmental impacts, such as blocking estuaries. [29]

 

Armoring, the practice of using physical structures to protect shorelines from coastal erosion, often causes more destruction than it prevents.[30] In California, 14% or 149 miles of the state’s coastline is armored[31] meaning some type of “hard” structure is used to protect wave-impacted development or infrastructure.[32] On the Southern California coast, 38% has been protected with some type of armoring. This represents a 500 percent increase in 47 years.[33] Armoring has an unnatural visual impact, often obscuring natural cliffs and bluffs.[34] The armoring structures take up beach space and reduce beach access.[35] Moreover, when armoring is placed along an eroding coastline, it creates a barrier that impacts natural processes and can increase erosion in adjacent areas.[36]

 

Beach Nourishment and Armoring are not long-term solutions, and both will eventually fail. Another method for addressing sea-level rise and coastal erosion is “managed retreat.” The concept involves moving people and infrastructure away from the coast in a purposeful, long-term, and planned manner. As California faces rising seas, managed retreat is an essential tool governments, whether federal, state, or local, can use to protect communities facing loss of infrastructure and personal property. 

 

Managed retreat includes the possibility of funding programs to buy homes of property owners. In coastal areas damaged by storms, managed retreat has worked. For example, after Hurricane Sandy, New York’s Governor initiated a buyout program for homes in flood-prone areas. Pursuant to the plan, additional incentives were offered to homeowners in high-risk communities and for communities that agreed to mass relocation.[37] The program has returned many high-risk residential areas to green space instead of allowing new development.[38] But for managed retreat programs to be viable, government programs which continue to subsidize rebuilding in flood-prone areas must stop. The Natural Resources Defense Council estimates that FEMA has spent more money rebuilding homes in disaster prone areas than it would have cost to purchase the homes.[39] Another reason to consider managed retreat now is because as sea levels rise, insurance companies will likely stop insuring coastal properties. Insurance premiums in disaster areas are already increasing and some insurance companies are refusing to insure homes in fire-prone areas of California.[40] Adopting a managed retreat plan now prevents homeowners from later being stranded with an uninsurable property or the outright loss of a home.

 

                 B.          Controversy Surrounding Managed Retreat

 

Of the adaptation strategies discussed above, managed retreat is usually the most effective in protecting people and property.[41] Yet, the concept of managed retreat is controversial, elicits concerns about eminent domain, and is widely recognized as politically toxic.[42] President Barack Obama’s administration once considered a national strategy for managed retreat, but the idea of large-scale relocations was so unacceptable it was described as the third rail of politics.[43]  In California, the concept is often so contested that it has become nearly impossible for coastal planners to even mention it.[44] The California Coastal Commission, the state agency that oversees coastal planning and protection, has told cities to consider managed retreat as an option and yet local governments rejected the strategy in their LCPs.[45] Many planners and politicians have simply removed any mention of managed retreat from their planning documents.[46]

 

Managed retreat is often viewed by property owners as an excuse for the government to undermine private property rights. [47]Some government buyouts in flood plain areas have lacked transparency and this deters future residents from participating.[48] Also, many past buyout programs have occurred in low-income neighborhoods and implemented in a way that perpetuated social inequality and further deterred participation.[49] Stanford University research reveals that many government programs are often subjective about which homes qualify for buyouts and that the cost-effective requirement to qualify for Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) funding may exclude low-income and minority populations.[50]  However, a transparent coastal management plan that engages the community, offers creative options (such as a rent-back of the property from the government), and does not displace marginalized communities, is likely California’s best option for saving coastal communities.

 

With rising seas, time is of the essence, and it is time for California to adopt large-scale managed retreat plans. California’s recent barrage of heavy storms has reignited the call for managed retreat. In Santa Cruz, heavy storms led to substantial erosion of public access in the coastal zone. This level of erosion was not expected for another 15 to 30 years.[51]Although Santa Cruz officials have tossed around the idea of managed retreat in the past, it has never been fully considered, until recently. [52] Santa Cruz hopes to avoid making investments to coastal infrastructure too late. [53] Pacifica, CA learned the hard way that forced retreat is often far more expensive than a planned retreat. “Pacifica has become this story of unplanned, forced retreat, experts say, and the public got stuck with the bill.”[54] As more coastal cities face erosion due to rising seas, lessons learned from cities such as Pacifica will hopefully force cities to plan and consider managed retreat as an option for at-risk coastal properties.

 

           IV.          Recommendations for A Successful Managed Retreat Plan

 

The term “Managed Retreat” evokes a sense of failure and defeat which many homeowners may instinctively resist. More positive terms such as “strategic relocation,” or “planned relocation,” seem proactive and are more accepted by property owners.[55]Managed retreat efforts should start with the most vulnerable parts of the California coast and in areas where traditional beach armoring and/or beach nourishment have repeatedly failed. Residents of these areas should receive detailed, transparent plans that focus on saving homes and infrastructure. Marginalized communities should have designated advocates to avoid past injustices, and all community members should receive updates at every stage, so rumors and second-hand information are controlled.

 

When implementing managed retreat plans, efforts should focus on moving public buildings away from coastal areas. Public buildings are less likely to be controversial. Once the plan has been more widely accepted, coastal managers should then move to private residences. Residences in the most at-risk areas should be moved inland if possible or, if not, purchased by the state. The purchase offer will be for fair market value and rent back options should be offered to the participants whose homes were purchased by the state. The rent-back option allows families to enjoy their homes while the managed retreat plan is carried out throughout the community. A proposed end date for the managed retreat plan should be provided to the community. At the end date, all properties and infrastructure in the erosion zone will be removed and the landscape will be returned to its natural state. Also, setbacks should be employed to prevent future building in areas deemed at-risk of coastal erosion. As an example, Kauai, HI, requires that new construction must be set back at least 40 feet from the expected shoreline 70 or 100 years from now.[56]

 

             V.          Conclusion

 

Although controversial, the circumstances facing California’s coastal communities are dire and all reasonable options need to be on the table.Managed retreat is an effective solution for sparing coastal homes, roads, and communities threatened by rising sea levels. Significant erosion is inevitable for these communities. Attempts to slow erosion using beach nourishment and armament are not a long-term solution and have contributed to additional coastal problems. Government programs rebuilding homes in flood plains only delay the inevitable. California’s coastal communities should embrace managed retreat plans because all other forms of prevention will ultimately fail or have unintended consequences. A well-planned and transparent managed retreat program can benefit communities and homeowners and prevent future mass destruction caused by erosion. The alternative is that homes and lives could be lost so it is time to put all options on the table, even if they are not immediately popular.



[1] Ryan E. Lewis is an LLM Candidate in Environmental, Natural Resources, and Energy Law at Lewis & Clark Law School. She has more than ten (10+) years of complex litigation experience with a focus on complex multiparty litigation in state and federal courts. Ryan received her BA from Emory University and her JD from SUNY Buffalo.

[2] See, NOAA Office for Coastal Management, California https://coast.noaa.gov/states/california.html#, (last visited March 10, 2023). See also; Gary Griggs, Living with the Changing California Coast, p. 1, (University of California Press, 2005).

[3] Cheryl J. Hapke, Dave Reid, and Bruce Richmond “Rates and Trends of Coastal Change in California and the Regional Behavior of the Beach and Cliff System,” Journal of Coastal Research 2009(253), 603-615, (1 May 2009). https://doi.org/10.2112/08-1006.1(last visited April 23, 2023); See also, Mehta, Megan, California’s Coastal Erosion https://theleaflet.org/home-1/coastal-erosion (last visited April 23, 2023)

[4] Id.

[5] Poon, Linda, “Mapping Migration in the Face of Climate Change,” Bloomberg, February 20, 2020.

[6] Anderson, R.B. (2022), The taboo of retreat: The politics of sea level rise, managed retreat, and coastal property values in California. Economic Anthropology, 9: at 291 https://doi.org/10.1002/sea2.12247 (last visited March 10, 2023).

[7] Poon, Linda. “The ‘Next American Migration’ Is Unpredictable and Chaotic.” Bloomberg News, 7 Mar. 2023.  https://www.bloomberglaw.com/bloomberglawnews/environment-and-energy/X7MC3ETC000000?bna_news_filter=environment-and-energy#jcite. Accessed 22 Apr. 2023. 

(explaining how the National Flood Insurance Program, administered by Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is flawed, in debt, and offered at rates that are too low due to a Congressional mandate from 50 years ago and since then, FEMA has not disincentivize development in flood zones, or help move people out, sometimes even rebuilding the same homes six or seven or as many as a dozen times).

[8] See, SeaLevelRise.Org, California,https://sealevelrise.org/states/california/ (last visited April 22, 2023)

[9] CALMATTERS, “Without urgent action, California’s sea-level rise a threat to housing, economy, report says.” December 10, 2019, updated March 17, 2020; https://calmatters.org/environment/2019/12/californias-sea-level-rise-a-threat-to-housing-economy-lao-report-says/ (last visited April 23, 2023).

[10] Science Daily, Acceleration of global sea level rise imminent past 1.8 degrees planetary warming, February 14, 2023) https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/02/230214153916.htm (last visited March 11, 2023); Amos, Johnathan, “Accelerating melt of ice sheets now ‘unmistakable’” BBC News, April 20, 2023, https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-65317469 (last visited April 23, 2023).

[11] Amos, Johnathan, “Accelerating melt of ice sheets now ‘unmistakable’” BBC News, April 20, 2023, https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-65317469 (last visited April 23, 2023).

[12] Science Daily, Acceleration of global sea level rise imminent past 1.8 degrees planetary warming, February 14, 2023) https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/02/230214153916.htm (last visited April 21, 2023)

[13] Anderson, R.B. (2022), The taboo of retreat: The politics of sea level rise, managed retreat, and coastal property values in California. Economic Anthropology, 9: 284-296. https://doi.org/10.1002/sea2.12247

[14] Scientific American, Antarctica’s Collapse Could Begin Even Sooner Than Anticipated, Nov.1, 2022. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/antarcticas-collapse-could-begin-even-sooner-than-anticipated/ (last visited March 3, 2023).

[15] XIA, ROSANNA. “Destruction from Sea Level Rise in California Could Exceed Worst Wildfires and Earthquakes, New Research Shows.” Los Angeles Times, 13 Mar. 2019, https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-california-coast-storm-damage-20190313-story.html. Accessed 22 Apr. 2023. 

[16] CALMATTERS, “Without urgent action, California’s sea-level rise a threat to housing, economy, report says.” December 10, 2019, updated March 17, 2020; https://calmatters.org/environment/2019/12/californias-sea-level-rise-a-threat-to-housing-economy-lao-report-says/ (last visited April 23, 2023).

[17] Armsby, Matthew H, et al. “Role of the States.” Ocean and Coastal Law and Policy, 2nd ed., American Bar Association, Environmental Law and Research Section, 2015, pp. 75–107 (detailing how the Equal Footing Doctrine and Submerged Lands Act provide states with jurisdiction over their marine and coastal areas and natural resources but that this power is not absolute and is subject the federal preemption.)

[18] Id. at 91. See also, California Coastal Commission, https://www.coastal.ca.gov/fedcd/fedcndx.html (last visited April 22, 2023).

[19] California Coastal Commission, https://www.coastal.ca.gov/fedcd/fedcndx.html (last visited April 22, 2023).

[20] Humbolt, Surfrider, “A Win for Those who Love California Beaches.” Surfrider Foundation, July 15, 2021 https://www.surfrider.org/news/a-win-for-those-who-love-californias-beaches (last visited April 22, 2023).

[21] See, Gary Griggs, Living with the Changing California Coast, p. 75-87, (University of California Press, 2005).

(discussing the erosion of California’s coastline in detail)

[22] Anderson, R.B. (2022), The taboo of retreat: The politics of sea level rise, managed retreat, and coastal property values in California. Economic Anthropology, 9: at 291 https://doi.org/10.1002/sea2.12247 (last visited April 23, 2023).

[23] Id.

[24] See, https://explorebeaches.msi.ucsb.edu/beach-health/beach-nourishment (last visited March 10, 2023); See also, Katherine Leitzell, To shore up beaches, just add sand? Phys.Org, (April 9, 2018), https://phys.org/news/2018-04-shore-beaches-sand.html (last visited, April 23, 2023).

[25]See, https://explorebeaches.msi.ucsb.edu/beach-health/beach-nourishment (Last visited March 10, 2023); See also, Katherine Leitzell, To shore up beaches, just add sand? Phys.Org, (April 9, 2018), https://phys.org/news/2018-04-shore-beaches-sand.html (last visited March 11, 2023).

[26]Id.

[27]See, https://explorebeaches.msi.ucsb.edu/beach-health/beach-nourishment (Last visited March 10, 2023); See also, Katherine Leitzell, To shore up beaches, just add sand? Phys.Org, (April 9, 2018), https://phys.org/news/2018-04-shore-beaches-sand.html (last visited March 11, 2023).

[28]Id.

[29] See, Katherine Leitzell, To shore up beaches, just add sand? Phys.Org, (April 9, 2018), https://phys.org/news/2018-04-shore-beaches-sand.html (detailing how sand placed on Torrey Pines beach north of San Diego in 2001 washed away in a single storm and explaining that sand from a beach nourishment project moved both north and south along the coast and within four years contributed to the closure of the Tijuana River estuary) (last visited April 23, 2023).

[30] Griggs, G.B., 2010, The effects of armoring shorelines—The California experience, in Shipman, H., Dethier, M.N., Gelfenbaum, G., Fresh, K.L., and Dinicola, R.S., eds., 2010, Puget Sound Shorelines and the Impacts of Armoring— Proceedings of a State of the Science Workshop, May 2009: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2010-5254, p. 77-84.

[31] Gary Griggs, Coastal armoring and disappearing beaches (May 1, 2020), https://coastalcare.org/2020/05/coastal-armoring-and-disappearing-beaches-by-gary-griggs/ (last visited March 11, 2023).

[32] Id.

[33] Id.

[34] Griggs, G.B., 2010, The effects of armoring shorelines—The California experience, in Shipman, H., Dethier, M.N., Gelfenbaum, G., Fresh, K.L., and Dinicola, R.S., eds., 2010, Puget Sound Shorelines and the Impacts of Armoring— Proceedings of a State of the Science Workshop, May 2009: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2010-5254, p. 77-84.

[35] Id.

[36] Id.

[37] Binder, Sherri “Resilience and Postdisaster Relocation: A Study of New York’s Home Buyout Plan in the Wake of Hurricane SandyAugust 2013, https://hazards.colorado.edu/uploads/quick_report/binder_2013.pdf (last visited April 23, 2023).

[38] Managed Retreat as a Response to Disaster, https://www.e-education.psu.edu/earth107/node/1079 (last visited April 23, 2023)

[39]See, New York Times, “How Federal Flood Insurance Puts Homes at Risk” August 31, 2017 (Editorial Board, Opinion), https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/31/opinion/flood-insurance-program-.html (last visited April 23, 2023).

[40] Chiglinsky, Katherine, and Elaine Chen. “Many Californians Being Left Without Homeowners Insurance Due to Wildfire Risk.” Insurance Journal, December 12, 2020, https://doi.org/https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/west/2020/12/04/592788.htm (last visitedApril 23, 2023).

[41]Bragg, W.K.; Gonzalez,S.T.; Rabearisoa, A.; Stoltz, A.D. Communicating Managed Retreat in California. Water 2021, 13, 781. https://doi.org/10.3390/w1306078 (last visited 3/10/23), citing California Coastal Commission. California Coastal Commission Residential Adaptation Policy Guidance. Interpretive Guidelines for Addressing Sea Level Rise in Local Coastal Programs; California Coastal Commission: San Francisco, CA, USA, 2018; p. 95.

[42] Anderson, R.B. (2022), The taboo of retreat: The politics of sea level rise, managed retreat, and coastal property values in California. Economic Anthropology, 9: at 291 https://doi.org/10.1002/sea2.12247 (last visited March 10, 2023).

[43] John Carey, Managed retreat increasingly seen as necessary in response to climate change’s fury, PNAS (May 27, 2020), https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2008198117, (last visited March 11, 2023).

[44] Anderson, R.B. (2022), The taboo of retreat: The politics of sea level rise, managed retreat, and coastal property values in California. Economic Anthropology, 9: at 292.

[45] ClimateWire, Managed retreat: Unpopular, expensive and not going away (November 5, 2021), https://www.eenews.net/articles/managed-retreat-unpopular-expensive-and-not-going-away/ (last visited March 10, 2023)

[46] Anderson, R.B. (2022), The taboo of retreat: The politics of sea level rise, managed retreat, and coastal property values in California. Economic Anthropology, 9: at 291 https://doi.org/10.1002/sea2.12247 (last visited April 22, 2023).

[47] Id. at 292.

[48] Stanford research finds transparency may improve U.S. home buyout programs, (Sept 10, 2018), https://news.stanford.edu/2018/09/10/managed-retreat-buyouts-offer-lessons-success/, (last visited March 11, 2023).

[49] Stanford research finds transparency may improve U.S. home buyout programs, (Sept 10, 2018), https://news.stanford.edu/2018/09/10/managed-retreat-buyouts-offer-lessons-success/, (last visited March 11, 2023).

[50] Id. See also, Siders, A.R. Social justice implications of US managed retreat buyout programs. Climatic Change 152, 239–257 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2272-5 (finding that a review of eight US buyout programs suggests that buyouts, as practiced, lack transparency, which may increase public distrust of the process and reduce participation.)

[51] Lookout Santa Cruz, Managed retreat is on the table’: City discusses West Cliff’s future, will explore expanding one-way, https://lookout.co/santacruz/coast-life/story/2023-02-14/managed-retreat-save-west-cliff-adaptation-management-plan-one-way-street (last visited,April 22, 2023).

[52] Id.

[53] Id.

[54] Los Angeles Times, The California coast is disappearing under the rising sea. Our choices are grim, (July 7, 2019) https://www.latimes.com/projects/la-me-sea-level-rise-california-coast/ (last visited March 11, 2023).

[55] John Carey, Managed retreat increasingly seen as necessary in response to climate change’s fury, PNAS (May 27, 2020), https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2008198117, (last visited April 22, 2023).

[56] Id.